Economists and data experts at the Analysts Data Services and Resources firm, ADSR based in Ibadan have produced a stage-setting report that compares the first-year performances of all of Nigeria’s presidents since 1999 with a ranking that places Bola Tinubu fourth with 53.6% after Olusegun Obasanjo with 72.8%, late Umaru Yar’Adua 64.0%, Goodluck Jonathan 60.8% and ahead of Muhammadu Buhari with 48.8%.
In the report, the ADSR team led by the leading economist Afolabi Olowookere who teaches at the University of Ibadan, attempted to analyse President Bola Tinubu’s first year in office and to compare it with the first year’s performances of past Nigerian presidents.
According to the team, “the aim is to see if some of the current experiences are unique or were also observed under previous administrations. Attempts are made to provide a well-rounded and objective performance assessment so as to equip the reader with the necessary facts and figures. A selected number of indicators were used, comprising five indicators under each of the five segments of the economy, making 25. These segments include: Output and Prices, Financial Statistics, International Finance, Public Finance, and Governance and Institutions.
“President Tinubu is ranked along with the four past presidents since 1999 on each of these 25 indicators and the average scores are converted to percentages. In addition, some of the policies, programmes, and interventions of the current administration are identified to highlight their possible contribution to the current state of the economy.”
The report noted that “generally, it was observed that the first-year performance ranking of Nigerian Presidents has been on the decline. It fell from the highest level under Obasanjo (72.8%) to the lowest under Buhari (48.8%). “However, a turning point is being observed under the Tinubu administration, raising overall first-year performance to 53.6%. The strong segment for the Tinubu administration is documented to be in the area of Public Finance (64%), and the weak segment is around Output and Prices (40%).”
The comprehensive ranking examined diverse indices like GDP growth rate, manufacturing growth rate, rate of inflation, amount of electricity generated, petrol price, money supply-GDP ratio, MPR, private sector credit as the ratio of the GDP, stock market indices, the level of non-performing loan to total loan, the official exchange rate to the dollar, parallel exchange rate, official-parallel rate gap, external reserves, current account balance as a ratio of GDP, public sector debt as a percentage of GDP, FGN revenue as percentage of GDP, average monthly gross FAAC purse, share of capital in the budget, time it took for a president to form the federal cabinet, number of ministers, the number of circulars and guidelines issued by the CBN, budget presentation lag measured in days as well as budget approval lag in days.
The report enumerated a number of bold reforms initiated by the Tinubu administration in its first year some of which it said had been too much for the citizens to swallow in just one year.
The reforms listed include the removal of energy suratees, exchange rates harmonization, the announcement of a new bank capitalization benchmark as well as the settlement of the $7bn foreign exchange backlog. Under the category of governance and institutions, Tinubu got good rating for the work of his presidential fiscal policy and tax reforms committee, the consideration of the Oronsaye report, suspension of corrupt heads of agencies and ministers, switching the payment for crude oil sales from NNPC to the Central Bank. On business competitiveness, President Tinubu got good marks for his many engagements with foreign investors, improved global rating, the simplified and expedited visa and passport issuance as well as the compressed natural gas CNG scheme.
Recommendations listed by the analysts to improve performance of the current government are in three broad categories – collaborate better, coordinate better and communicate better.
Top items in the first category are better collaboration with the private sector for the provisiion of vital infrastructure, introduction of independent thinking and policy making in a pro-citizen manner, leveraging local expertise of experience hands and working to build trust with workers by prioritizing their welfare and engaging in ways to raise wages and productivity.
On improved coordination, the analysts called for more visibility and effectiveness of the minister in charge of coorindation of the economy, making the process of policy formulation and implementation more objective, transparent and evidence-based as well for the president to see fuel subsidy and exchange rate misalignment as symptoms of a bigger productivity problem to be solved over the medium to long term, avoiding policy flip flops such as “the announcement and suspension of cash palliatives, expatriate employment levy, cybersecurity levy, governing councils of federal tertiary institutions, etc. Ensure effective macroeconomic policy coordination without hampering the independence of the CBN.”
On communication, Tinubu was advised to avoid overpromising while keeping the people better informed about the costs and benefits of reforms.
Analysts’ Data Services and Resources (ADSR) is a Data and Research Company leverages resources available at the University of Ibadan and provides accurate data, information and analysis for intelligent investment, academic and policy decisions. Over the years, they have worked with corporations, governments and supranationals to deliver data and intelligence support that cut through complex decision-making issues, thus unearthing intrinsic value in a way that builds public confidence.
