One of the most accurate pollsters in US political history has stated that the incumbent US President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of winning the US elections, even though most polls predict that Joe Biden will emerge winner.
Pollster Helmut Norpoth correctly predicted Trump’s election win back in 2016 and four years later, his poll model predicts that Trump will win again.
Norpoth, a professor of political science at New York’s Stony Brook University, created his prediction model in 1996; drawing from every US election that had been conducted since 1912.
The model is based on each candidate’s performance at their party’s Primary Elections, or Primaries, where Democrats and Republicans alike voted for who their party’s presidential candidate should be.
When Norpoth analysed and compared Trump and Biden’s Primary Elections to those over the last 108 years, he argues he can predict the outcome of the November elections.
In this year’s Primaries, trump won 94% in the Republican Primaries while Biden won just 54% of the Democratic Primaries. Due to this, Norpoth says Biden will win the popular vote while Trump will win the Electoral College.
“I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests. It’s a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what’s going to happen in November.” Norpoth said in the press release.
Meanwhile, his model has been successful in predicting presidential winners since 1996. “When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85% of the votes… I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict.” Norpoth said.
Joes Biden, on the other hand, won only 8.4% in New Hampshire; a number that, Norpoth said, “is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery believes Trump will do very well. “We have to remember one thing; Donald Trump is the most dynamic presidential candidate of my lifetime. I’ve never seen anything like it.”
He added, “Him going to these locations and drawing people out, particularly in the rural and semi-rural areas where they need to pile these votes up. That’s going to come back home in a big way to Donald Trump on Election Night and I don’t think [a majority of] these polls are picking that up.”